Where Are Prices Breaking First?
Home prices are now falling year over year in 25 of 33 major expensive cities, and the damage is concentrated where the last cycle got most stretched.
Oakland and Austin are both down 26% from their 2022 peaks, while New York and Chicago are still printing new highs.
That split matters because distress usually starts with basis resets, then shows up later in seller concessions, loan workouts, REO, and special servicer files.
At the same time, mortgage rates snapped back to 6.75%, the highest level since July, after jumping 33 basis points in just 10 days.
That move adds roughly $167 a month to the payment on a median-priced home, just as buyers were trying to step back in.
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Home Prices Fall in 25 of 33 Expensive Cities
Home prices fell year over year in 25 of 33 big expensive cities in April, with Oakland and Austin down 26% from their 2022 peaks. The split is getting wider, with New York and Chicago at new highs while former boomtowns keep giving back gains.
Mortgage Rates Surge to Highest Level Since July
Mortgage rates just hit 6.75%, the highest since July, after rising 33 basis points in 10 days. That adds about $167 a month on a median-priced home, even as pending sales rose and builders keep buying down rates.
Apartment Construction Starts Plummet To 15-Year Low
Apartment starts just fell to a 15-year low, with only 55,000 units breaking ground in Q1. The pipeline is down 50% from its 2023 peak, while office conversions keep climbing and Sun Belt metros are still digesting their excess supply.
HELOC Balances Hit $446B
HELOC balances hit $446B, up 41% since 2021, while mortgage balances barely moved. The bigger signal is homeowners are adding leverage through second-lien debt as serious delinquencies and foreclosures stay low.
Opportunity Zone Prices Rise in 44.6% of Tracts
Opportunity Zone prices rose year over year in 44.6% of analyzed tracts, with nearly 31% posting double-digit gains. The wrinkle is prices inside the zones are still far lower, with only 21.1% at or above the national median.
