Today’s Cuts, Tomorrow’s Deals
Default risk is inching up, a quiet sign that more borrowers are starting to wobble.
Pandemic boomtowns are blinking first, with record price cuts that put real pressure on sellers.
Builders are slashing list prices too, pushing the new-home premium to an all-time low and dragging nearby comps down with it.
Top stories of the week
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Economic Uncertainty Driving Mortgage Default Risk Higher
Both an increase in borrower risk (1.40% to 1.43%) and economic risk (from 0.64% to 0.68%) contributed to the slight increase in default risk for GSE loans during Q1 2025.
Pandemic Boomtowns Now Lead in Price Cuts
After years of bidding wars, heartbreak, and sky-high prices, buyers may finally be getting a break. More than one in four home sellers cut their asking price in June, the highest share on record for this time of year in Zillow’s data.
Price Premium for Newly Built Homes Falls to an All-Time Low
The biggest discounts tend to be found in the South and West, where new homes make up a significantly greater share of for-sale listings, and weak demand has led builders to make price cuts.
Here Come the HELOCs
Balances of Home Equity Lines of Credit jumped by 2.2% quarter-to-quarter, and by 8.2% year-over-year, to $411 billion. Since the beginning of 2021, HELOC balances have surged by 30%.
Refi Demand Surged as Rates Hit Longer-Term Lows
Mortgage rates fell to their lowest level since January, leading to a solid rebound in application activity. The 30-year fixed rate declined to 6.67%, the third straight weekly drop, and that pulled refinance applications to their highest level since early 2023.
Top 10 Opportunity Zones Where Median Home Price Nearly Doubled Annually in Q2 2025
Those zones include:Allen County, Indiana (up from $ 205,500 Median Sales Price in second quarter 2024 to $410,500 Median Sales Price in second quarter 2025);Hockley County, Texas (up from $83,180 to $165,693) and Allegheny County, Pennsylvania (up from $51,500 to $102,500)
