These Markets Are Breaking First
A growing number of analysts now warn that a housing correction is taking shape, and the early numbers are starting to back them up.
That pressure is already showing up in the hardest-hit markets, where mid-tier home prices have fallen 10% to 25% from their peaks after massive run-ups from 2020–2022.
When that kind of equity evaporates, owners who refinanced at the top or tapped HELOCs suddenly find themselves underwater with no easy exit.
For distressed-asset investors, this is the first clear map of where motivated sellers will surface long before the rest of the market catches on.
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Price Correction “Worse Than 2008” Coming to US Housing Market
It has been a difficult year for the U.S. housing market, millions of Americans are still being kept on the sidelines of the housing market by higher home prices, property taxes, and home insurance premiums, as well as still-elevated borrowing costs.
The 14 Bigger Cities & Counties with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes
Prices of mid-tier single-family homes in 14 bigger cities and counties have dropped by 10% to 25% through October from their respective peaks in prior years, seasonally adjusted, after price explosions of 60%, 70%, and even over 80% from mid-2020 to their peaks.
Record Discounts Roll In, Opening a Window for Patient Buyers
Pittsburgh has had the largest relative discount among major markets more than 9%. With New Orleans homes are also typically discounted by 9% of the metro’s typical home value, with buyers in Austin (8.4%), Houston (8.2%) and San Antonio (7.9%) seeing the next-best deals.
Builders Slash Prices at Record Pace Despite Slight Sentiment Improvement
Even after pulling back from peak levels, mortgage rates are high enough that a lot of would-be buyers are still on the sidelines. Any sustained move toward lower rates would help unstick that buyer traffic index, but for now, builders are operating in a world where financing costs are still a big constraint.
U.S. Mortgage Originations Dip 2 Percent in Q3 2025
Major markets with the steepest quarterly drops included Austin, TX (down 35.6%), Atlanta, GA (down 25.8 percent), San Antonio, TX (down 19.5%), Washington, DC (down 15.8%), and Dallas, TX (down 15.7%).
Credit Card Delinquencies, Balances, Burden, Credit Limits, and Collections in Q3 2025
The 30-day-plus delinquency rate on credit cards issued by all commercial banks declined to 2.98% at the end of Q3, seasonally adjusted (SA), the lowest since Q2 2023, and down from 3.19% a year ago.
