Office Distress Still Hasn’t Bottomed Out
It’s getting ugly out there—especially in California and New Jersey, where a wave of economic pressure is building.
These markets are showing classic warning signs: rising unemployment, more underwater mortgages, and a steady climb in foreclosures.
Add in the slow-motion collapse of the office sector, a quiet investor exit across the Midwest and South, and surging insurance costs that are breaking homeowner budgets, and you’ve got a market full of cracks.
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California and New Jersey Top Counties Facing Greatest Housing Market Headwinds
The data shows that 23 of the 50 most at-risk markets were in California (14) and New Jersey (9). Risk was determined by affordability, proportion of seriously underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment rates.
Inventory of Homes for Sale in the Biggest Florida Metros Piles Up to Highest in Years
The inventory levels in April and May were by far the highest in the data from realtor.com going back to 2016. There was a housing shortage in 2021 and 2022. And now there’s a flood of housing on the market.
Office-Backed CMBS Faces Uncertainty Despite Signs of Recovery
While distress levels had fallen across most property and loan types—including those backed by Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae, Ginnie Mae, and CRE CLO—office loans remained the exception. Office-backed loans are still the most distressed in the market.
The Most Splendid Housing Bubbles in America, May 2025
Inventory is suddenly piling up in the largest markets in California, such as by 66% year-over-year in San Diego, and by 40% in the San Francisco metro where it reached the highest level in many years. In the biggest markets in Florida, inventory is piling up at astonishing rates.
Home Insurance Rates Growing at Nearly Double the Rate of Homeowner Income
Miami, which has experienced a 57% growth rate in insurance premiums. Across the Miami metro area, $1.4 trillion of residential real estate is at major risk of extreme wind.
Record Investor Home Sales Present Opportunity for Buyers
Investors made up 10.8% of sellers in 2024, the largest percentage ever recorded, up from 10.1% in 2023. The largest shares of investor sellers were in Oklahoma (16.7%), Georgia (15.9%), and Missouri (16.7%).
