Condos First. Then What?
Credit stress is starting to show up in places that were supposed to stay under control.
It shows up first in the weaker parts of the market, and right now condos are one of the clearest signals.
Prices are already down 15% to 33% in two dozen bigger markets, with some cities giving back gains all the way to 2005 and 2006 levels.
Cheap money pushed a lot of values higher, but this reset is starting to show which assets had real support and which ones were just riding the cycle.
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Here Come The Bankruptcies
Credit stress is spreading from consumers to private credit, CRE and corporate borrowers. Student loan, auto loan, office and multifamily delinquencies are all moving higher, while bankruptcies hit a 15-year high in 2025.
Oh Dear, Condo Prices already Dropped by 15% to 33% in 24 Bigger Markets
Condo prices are already down 15% to 33% in two dozen bigger markets, with Cape Coral and Oakland leading the reset. In some cities, values have round-tripped back to levels first seen around 2005 and 2006. The condo bubble is now showing up in the data.
Prices of Single-Family Homes already Down 10% to 26% in these 15 Bigger Cities
Single-family home prices are already down 10% to 26% in 15 bigger cities, even as national price indices barely moved. Austin and Oakland are leading the reset, while builders in places like McKinney are cutting prices and piling on incentives.
Zombie Foreclosures Rise in Most States in Second Quarter
Zombie foreclosures are rising again, even with the national vacancy rate holding at 1.3%. ATTOM counted 8,31 abandoned homes in foreclosure in Q2, with increases across 38 states and D.C. The distress is still small, but it is getting broader.
Nearly 40% of Listings Come with Perks this Spring (April Rental Report)
Nearly 40% of Zillow rental listings now come with concessions, up from roughly 1 in 3 last year and closer to 1 in 6 before the pandemic. Denver, Charlotte and Dallas are leading the perk race as new apartment supply gives renters more leverage.
US Mortgage Rate Rises to 9-Month High, Worsening Affordability Again
Mortgage rates just hit a nine-month high at 6.65%, and buyers are pulling back again. Applications fell 8.5% last week, refinancing dropped, and rate lock is still keeping owners with sub-5% mortgages from listing their homes.
