50K Sellers Gone. Buyers Run the Show
Office CMBS special servicing hit another record—more distressed debt and rescue-capital deals are coming.
Meanwhile, New York is auctioning 5,000+ rent-stabilized units, a rare flood of forced sellers in a market that typically hoards opportunity.
Buyers already have leverage: sellers are retreating, with nearly 50,000 exiting in three months alone.
Add in a government shutdown that could freeze thousands of daily mortgages, and prepared investors can name their terms.
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CMBS Special Servicing Rate Recedes in August; Office Climbs 70 BPs
The office CMBS special servicing rate climbed 70 bps to another record high of 16.90%. Y-O-Y, office special servicing is up by nearly 500 bps. Even with a headline easing, office distress is still worsening at the loan level, keeping discounted debt, note sales, and rescue-capital plays very alive.
Over 5,000 NYC Rent-Stabilized Apartments Headed for Auction
A rare, immediate pipeline of forced sellers in a supply-starved market creates targeted, potentially discounted multifamily opportunities.
The 14 Bigger Cities with the Biggest Price Declines of Single-Family Homes (-10% to -24%)
Sharp city-level price drops flag where cap-rate expansion and motivated sellers are likeliest, guiding market selection for buy-low entries. Condo prices have been on the forefront, skidding faster in more cities than prices of single-family homes
2025 Experiences Strongest Buyer’s Market in More Than a Decade
Although there are still more sellers than buyers, sellers have begun to back off in response to the homebuyers’ retreat. Within the last three months, the property market has lost almost 50,000 sellers.
Sales of Existing Single-Family Homes Crushed Further, Supply at 2016 Levels.
Compared to August 2024, sales were up by 2.5%. Compared to August 2019, sales were down by 25%. Compared to August 2021, sales were down by 32%. Compared to August 2009, the depth of the Housing Bust, sales were down by 2.7%
What the Government Shutdown Could Mean for Housing
By recent estimates, more than 2,500 mortgage originations per working day are at risk of delays during a shutdown, in programs directly tied to federal agencies. That means deals relying on these lending mechanisms may stall, perhaps indefinitely.
